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Moods and Markets: A New Way to Invest in Good Times and in Bad, Rough Cuts

Moods and Markets: A New Way to Invest in Good Times and in Bad, Rough Cuts

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Description

  • Copyright 2013
  • Dimensions: 6" x 9"
  • Pages: 208
  • Edition: 1st
  • Rough Cuts
  • ISBN-10: 0-13-294723-4
  • ISBN-13: 978-0-13-294723-7

This is the Rough Cut version of the printed book.

Leading consultant and Minyanville contributor Peter Atwater has helped institutional investors, corporations and policymakers map changing social moods to emerging market shifts, and use that knowledge to identify huge new market opportunities.  Now, Atwater shows you how to use the same powerful Horizon PreferenceTM approach to select your own high-performance investments.   Utilizing what is often in plain sight, but overlooked and underestimated, Horizon Preference helps you understand how we narrow our physical, time and relationship horizons to the "local" in bad times, and widen them to the "global" in better times – and then translate that knowledge into better investment decisions.  Atwater’s Moods and Markets offers powerful new insights into everything from market bubbles to the real challenges of making mergers work… why "farm to table" and "locavore" movements are booming now, and what’s likely to happen next… why Americans now want to rent homes even though it’s become far more affordable to buy them… why the "Arab Spring" is bullish, and higher education is in deep trouble… which businesses prosper in a downturn, which prosper most in an upturn – and why. This book will be an invaluable resource for every serious investor, trader, and money manager.

Sample Content

Table of Contents

Foreword     xix

Introduction     1

Chapter 1 Understanding Social Mood     11

Mood Defined     12

Mood Versus Emotion     14

Confidence and Our Perceptions of Certainty     15

The Continuum of Social Mood     20

Individual Versus Social Mood     24

Measuring Mood     25

Social Mood and the Media     28

Mood Groups     31

Final Thoughts     32

Chapter 2 Horizon Preference: How Mood Affects Our Decision Making     33

The Horizon Preference Continuum     35

Logical Decision Making in Periods of Rising Social Mood     39

Logical Decision Making in Periods of Falling Social Mood     45

Opportunities During Declining Social Mood     50

Final Thoughts     52

Chapter 3 Market Peaks and All the Red Flags They Wave     55

The Concept Stock Bubble     56

Big Truths     58

Abdication of Risk Management     59

Organizational Complexity     61

Novice and Naïve Entrants     62

Credit, Architecture, and Other Signs of the Top     63

Why Investment Peaks Are Different     68

After the Peak     70

Final Thoughts     71

Chapter 4 A Social Mood Journey Back Through the Housing Bubble    73

Modern Housing Finance     75

A Big Truth     78

Abdication of Risk Management     78

Organizational Complexity     80

Novice and Naïve Entrants     82

Excessive Credit and Architecture     83

Final Thoughts     84

Chapter 5 Is Higher Education a Bubble?     85

A Big Truth     85

Abdication of Risk Management     88

Organizational Complexity     91

Naïve and Novice Participants     91

Excessive Credit     92

Architecture     93

Final Thoughts     95

Chapter 6 Signs of a Bottom in Social Mood     99

Extreme “Me, Here, Now” Behaviors     100

Hoarding Behaviors     101

Acts of Sacrifice     104

Event Versus Cycle Lows      108

The Market Low of 2002     109

The Market Low of March 2009      110

The Market Bottom of 1932     112

Seeing Major Market Bottoms in Real Time     113

Social Mood and Invention     115

Final Thoughts     120

Chapter 7 Cooking the Books: Corporate Earnings and Social Mood     121

Mood-Driven Accounting Principles     122

Mood-Driven Management Judgment     125

Mood-Driven “One Time” Charges     130

Final Thoughts     133

Chapter 8 Social Mood and the Markets Today: So Where Are We?     135

Modern Day Extremes in Social Mood     139

Communication and Transportation Innovations and Peaks in Social Mood     141

2000 to 2012: Deteriorating Mood     142

Plotting Social Mood     145

A Long-Term Perspective on Social Mood and Stock Multiples     148

Social Mood and the Evolution of Major Corporations     150

Peak Social Mood and Sovereign Debt     154

Final Thoughts     156

Chapter 9 Using Horizon Preference No Matter Your Long-Term View     159

Final Thoughts     166

Chapter 10 Final Thoughts     169

Bibliography     171

Index     175

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